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Articles

THE BULGARIAN ECONOMY IN 2021 – 2022 – BETWEEN ECONOMIC RECOVERY AND STAGFLATION CONCERNS

Iskra Hristova-Balkanska — Economic Research Institute аt BAS
iskrachristova@abv.bg ORCID 0009-0002-2902-1887
Emil Panushev — Varna Free University "Chernorizets Hrabar"
empan@bas.bg
Pobeda Lukanova — Economic Research Institute аt BAS
ploukanova@abv.bg
Grigor Sariyski — Economic Research Institute аt BAS
grigor@sariiski.com
Victor Yotsov — Economic Research Institute аt the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences
vyotzov@gmail.com ORCID 0000-0002-9956-0483
Dimitar Zlatinov — Economic Research Institute аt BAS
dzlatinov@feb.uni-sofia.bg ORCID 0000-0001-5528-5961
Iana Paliova — Economic Research Institute at BAS
ipaliova@abv.bg ORCID 0009-0000-1657-4410
Sonya Georgieva — Economic Research Institute at BAS
s.georgieva@iki.bas.bg ORCID 0000-0001-8269-7056
Tsvetomir Tsvetkov — Economic Research Institute at BAS
ineco@iki.bas.bg ORCID 0000-0002-4657-9519
Published: 05.06.2023
DOI: https://doi.org/10.56497/etj2368201

Abstract

The paper examines the current state and development of the Bulgarian economy in 2021 and early 2022. The main sectors of the economy (real, fiscal, foreign, and financial) are examined, and the labour market is analysed. We assess the current policies being implemented in Bulgaria, considering regional and global developments and trends. Based on specific conclusions, we make recommendations for mitigating high-risk price dynamics, preserving incomes and employment, and ensuring fiscal stability. Employing a structural macroeconomic model, a reasoned medium-run macroeconomic scenario is proposed, reflecting different assumptions about both the dynamics of the external economic environment and the expected economic policies. The analysis of the macroeconomic situation and projections for the development of the Bulgarian economy are based on key factors such as accelerating inflation, uncertainties surrounding the epidemic situation caused by COVID-19, geopolitical turbulences in the region, and the expected acceleration of investment activity through the implementation of the projects of the National Recovery and Resilience Plan.

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Keywords

пазар на труда външна търговия банков сектор капиталов пазар икономическа динамика фискална устойчивост европейски фондове и програми

JEL Classification

E44, E60, E47, E2

How to Cite

Zlatinov, D. et al. (2023). Balgarskata ikonomika prez 2021 – 2022 g. – mezhdu ikonomicheskoto vazstanovyavane i opaseniyata za stagflatsiya. (The Bulgarian economy in 2021 – 2022 – between economic recovery and stagflation concerns). Economic Thought Journal, 68(2), 123-162 (in Bulgarian). https://doi.org/10.56497/etj2368201

References

International Monetary Fund. (2022). War Sets Back the Global Recovery. World Economic Outlook. Available at https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/ 2022/04/19/ world-economic-outlook-april-2022.

Rosenberg, Ch., Sierhej, R. (2007). Interpreting EU Funds Data for Macroeconomic Analysis in the New Member States. IMF Working Paper WP/07/77. International Monetary Fund, Washington DC.

Simeonov, S., Todorov, T. (2018). Formirane na investitsionen profil za aktsii, targuvani na Balgarskata fondova borsa za perioda avgust 2016 – dekemvri 2017. Ikonomika 21, 8(1), 86-116. [Симеонов, С., Тодоров, Т. (2018). Формиране на инвестиционен профил за акции, търгувани на Българската фондова борса за периода август 2016 – декември 2017. Икономика 21, 8(1), 86-116] (in Bulgarian).

Yordanov, Y. (2020). Razvitie i sastoyanie na balgarskiya kapitalov pazar. V: Godishnik na Stopanska akademiya „D. A. Tsenov“, T. SHXІII. Svishtov, 7-56. [Йорданов, Й. (2020). Развитие и състояние на българския капиталов пазар. В: Годишник на Стопанска академия „Д. А. Ценов“, Т. СХXІII. Свищов, 7-56] (in Bulgarian).